Posted tagged ‘ndtv profit’

Shankar Sharma: You are wrong!

September 1, 2008

“Sensible soundbytes” is an oxymoron. This is what a great author has said. So if most of you know what is a black swan, you know who I am talking about.

I normally do not watch much TV – except for Ramayan or Animal Planet with my daughter. However, I am many times under great pressure to watch the business channels – from friends in the media.

Yesterday, I believe, Mr. Shankar Sharma came on NDTV Profit and said “The index will not reach 100,000 – not in my life-time – and may not be in your life time too, and you are much younger than me.” Frankly, Mr. Sharma you look young, and maybe you are about 45 years of age. However, for our purposes may I please assume you are 50? May I also assume that you will live to the age of 72 years? i.e. we are talking about 22 years. May I also assume that India will grow and there will be inflation in India? i.e. we are talking of 6% growth + 6% inflation. That is we will get a growth of at least 12% p.a? I know about standard deviation, and I also know that we will not grow at this constant rate….however 12% over the next 22 years will happen.

On this assumption Mr. Shankar Sharma the index will grow as follows:

50 16,307
51 18,753
52 21,566
53 24,801
54 28,521
55 32,800
56 37,720
57 43,377
58 49,884
59 57,367
60 65,972
61 75,867
62 87,248
63 100,335
64 115,385
65 132,693
66 152,597
67 175,486
68 201,809
69 232,080
70 266,892
71 306,926
72 352,965

Best channel for investing?

July 17, 2008

Which is the best channel to watch if you are an investor?

Cnbc? Ndtv Profit? Zee Business? …

Well what about Animal Planet?

O.k. Okay…I am wrong, but please read ahead especially if you are asking me …

Will watching Animal Planet help me answer the following questions?

Will inflation touch 17% six months from now?

Where will oil be six months from now?

And where will the sensex be?

What about real estate?

Fact is, investors who try to time the market are fooling themselves. Jumping in and out of the market isn’t a reliable strategy for wealth creation, and it isn’t successful – period.

Fact is, you are trying to fool yourself by hoping to get answers to these questions by watching the business channels.

You cannot get an answer to these questions by watching Television, or by doing a PhD in Finance. So stop attempting to answer these questions. Period.

Generally in any sport or in real life activities you win by controlling your emotions – not by succumbing to them. So unless you are really made of steel you will succumb to the emotions of the TV analyst. Just remember the channel makes money if you watch. You make money if your portfolio does well. I have still not seen proof that watching television (or reading the pink papers) can create a good portfolio. I may be wrong, but I still have to say it!